Why even a strong El Niño does not guarantee a poor Indian monsoon

Seven Indian monsoons since 1950 have run into a moderate or strong El Niño. Of these, in five years, including 2026, monsoon rainfall levels were at least 10% lower than the long-term average. The IMD refers to this level as 'deficient’. The 2023 season was something of an exception with ‘below average’ rainfall. However, 1997 had ‘average’ rainfall

First reported by The Hindu 1 hr ago1 source

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The Hindu11:531 hr ago
Why even a strong El Niño does not guarantee a poor Indian monsoon (opens The Hindu in a new tab)
Seven Indian monsoons since 1950 have run into a moderate or strong El Niño. Of these, in five years, including 2026, monsoon rainfall levels were at least 10% lower than the long-term average. The IMD refers to this level as 'deficient’. The 2023 season was…